Season 16 bad luck and how to deal with it


Ghist

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Oct 23, 2017
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This is as much for reminding myself and helping others to deal with bad luck on season so far as it is to show how to make your own luck. A lot of it is based on my experience from previous seasons. You might be one of the people that has not really had much luck despite the large number of hours spent on farming, rerolling and upgrading. Sometimes numbers just do not align for you and it is important to understand the patterns that seems to be occurring. Maybe some of the notes below can give you some comfort:
  • Diablo 3 drops are a numbers game
    • With enough drops you will eventually get what you are looking for albeit at slower pace than your lucky friends.
  • Only bad Primals so far
    • This is also about number of drops, with enough of them there will be useful ones. General rate I have observed seems to be 10-15 primals with 1 useable good one one.
    • If you are looking for perfect primals, then I would say rate is 1 full inventory page of useless ones per one perfect
    • My worst season so far (season 14) I had to get 11 bad Primals before I got one useful one
    • In general per season I have had almost 2 Stash pages full of primals, therefore I had ended up with around 10 useful ones between my multiple builds
  • You can try to make your own luck
    • Mass upgrades for rares
      • In past I have often farmed a large number of Death’s Breaths (15000) and keys at the same time by running T13 rifts so that I was able to upgrade very large number of rares to legendaries and set items.
      • Every time I did that kind of mass crafting day, I ended up with 1-2 useable Primals and many useable Ancient items.
      • It usually took me 4-5 days to gather enough materials for the mass crafting.
      • When upgrading Rares, try to pick up good base items with as many of possible useable items and least number of unwanted one (example: upgrading rare daggers for Impale Demon Hunter)
    • Rerolling legendaries/set items
      • This will take running a lot of bounties
      • Good approach is to run few bounties every day to build up stockpile of the materials. I tend to run bounties for about 1 hour per day when in this mode so it does not become too repetitive
      • I also run one bounty heavy single day to get this started
  • Luck with drops comes in streaks/bursts
    • It would not be uncommon to see dry drop periods and then later very rich drop days
    • So keep at it and you’ll have your lucky day as well
  • Diablo 3 season is a marathon, not a sprint
    • It has only been few days and there is plenty more left.
    • Just like with Paragon levels you see some people get well ahead early seasons only to drop behind later in the season


My personal S16 story on making my own luck after a bad season start

Drop luck situation on start of Day 5 of the S16:
  • 40+ hours played after hitting level 70
  • 150+ GR90+ runs with T13 runs for keys for that (max number of loot drops)
  • 1000 Paragon
  • Both T13 and GR builds I use atm have total of 4 ancients between them. 3 were drops, 1 was graciously given to me.
  • 8 Primals so far, all useless
  • My Compass Rose and F&R rings are atrocious with single DPS stat after rerolling one stat

My plan for making up for bad start:
  1. Create a bounty build using Tal’s Frozen Orb, AW and Sage’s set
    1. Get build together, I have all the pieces, even if those are not that good. Tal’s buff should carry the low under 1 million sheet DPS
    2. I’ll use Sage’s gloves and Boots to get extra DBs while running bounties
    3. Use first bounty mats to reroll ancient AW to speed the process
  2. Run at least 1 hour per day of T13 split bounties with next Saturday doing same for 6+ hours
    1. Aside of the above AW to ancient or great normal AW reroll, do not use any of the mats
  3. Complete seasonal Campaign to enable Templar quest
    1. This allows one to run the templar quest over and over again with 100+ grey materials per minute. So 6000 grey materials per hour.
    2. Grey items are the biggest limitation for upgrading rares
  4. Mass run T13 rifts for DBs, mats and keys using build with Sage’s set bonus
    1. Unlike last time, I will not run these without some GR90+ in between T13 rifts
  5. Run more GR90s for loot and Exp
    1. Hoping for good luck streak with drops
    2. These will also be used to prepare gems for Augmentation as I’m mostly done getting my in-use legendary gems to either Max or level 100+
  6. Once I have 15000+ DBs and 30000 each of other materials, mass upgrade for items which are my weakest
    1. To save on materials, I will use gambling as a way to get the base items rather than crafting those at Blacksmith if possible (not valid for weapons)
  7. Mass reroll priority weak items
    1. Looking to get to 2000+ bounty materials and 20000 forgotten souls before rerolling spree
  8. I will refrain from Augmenting my Ancient items until I’m done with previous steps unless the item has so good stats, I’m unlikely to find better one reliably.
All the above will take me probably 2 weeks at least, which should be in line with getting my final group build (Tal's Star Pact) ready after 3rd seasonal weekend. I’ll post some updates during this process to show how it is progressing.
 
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Rafiee

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Apr 14, 2011
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Run with friends too! I haven't gotten any great drops yet, but I did have a primal furnace drop last night with a buddy that was playing sader and it was perfect for his condemn crusader. At least it was nice knowing he'll be set in that department for the season. Maybe karma will come around :)
 
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Ghist

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Oct 23, 2017
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Run with friends too! I haven't gotten any great drops yet, but I did have a primal furnace drop last night with a buddy that was playing sader and it was perfect for his condemn crusader. At least it was nice knowing he'll be set in that department for the season. Maybe karma will come around :)

Definitely helps to run with friends and clan members as sometimes you may both give and receive items. My ancient Deathwish was graciously given to me on opening weekend by clan member. On the same note, my Tal Rashas pants are with so good stats that only primal version can be better, therefor if I get Tal Rasha's pants as ancient there is 99.75+% chance I can give it away to someone in same game.

We actually have a game night built around this today evening hours where we try to put same classes to group to promote some of that loot sharing.
 

Ghist

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Quick update on the progress to the goal. Numbers are for morning time.

1/22/19:
Bounty Mats: 2
DBs: 1433
Reusable parts: 63
Arcane Dust: 2521
Veiled Crystals: 5260
Forgotten Souls: 3056
Primals total: 9 (no usable ones)

1/23/19:
Bounty Mats: 235
DBs: 3213
Reusable parts: 4903
Arcane Dust: 7678
Veiled Crystals: 7746
Forgotten Souls: 3599
Primals total: 10 (no usable ones)
Notes: Running bounties, some T13 rirts and 3 GR 100+: 1 Shoulder upgrade from Bounties. Also created my Bounty build, which used some materials to reroll at enchanter

1/24/19:
Bounty Mats: 411
DBs: 3996
Reusable parts: 8499
Arcane Dust: 11409
Veiled Crystals: 9893
Forgotten Souls: 4185
Primals total: 15 (no usable ones)
Notes: running some bounties, then GR 90-97 runs. Found few minor upgrades for my builds, so had to use some mats on rerolling at enchanter, about 150 rerolls on rings.

1/25/19:
Bounty Mats: 523
DBs: 5755
Reusable parts: 12032
Arcane Dust: 15498
Veiled Crystals: 13534
Forgotten Souls: 4909
Primals total: 15 (no usable ones)
Notes: running 7 sets of bounties, then GR 90-100 runs. Few T13 rifts. 1 weapon upgrade for my T13 build
 

Ghist

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Weekend update:

1/28/19
Bounty Mats: 1013
DBs: 11351
Reusable parts: 25126
Arcane Dust: 30082
Veiled Crystals: 24607
Forgotten Souls: 8043
Primals total: 18 (1 useable for spec, I'm not playing)
Notes: This update consists of 3 days. Still keeping up with 7 bounty sets per day and on Sunday I did double that. I got 2 upgrades during the weekend as drops and had to spend some mats to reroll single stat at Mystic. I ended up doing over 100 GR100+ runs and some T13 rifts as well. It looks like I will be mostly limited by number of forgotten souls rather than bounty mats for Reforging. I will definitely be able to do the Rare upgrades on next Sunday, but may have to wait for longer for the reforging target of 400 reforges as it takes time to get the Forgotten Souls.
 

Ghist

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Update up to this morning:

1/29/19
Bounty Mats: 1156
DBs: 12248
Reusable parts: 28809
Arcane Dust: 33773
Veiled Crystals: 27419
Forgotten Souls: 8599
Primals total: 20 (1 useable for spec, I'm not playing)
Notes: 9 Sets of bounties and some GRs

1/30/19
Bounty Mats: 1268
DBs: 12990
Reusable parts: 30479
Arcane Dust: 36599
Veiled Crystals: 29522
Forgotten Souls: 9127
Primals total: 21 (2 useable ones but for not normally used for the build, a bit situational)
Notes: 7 Sets of bounties some speeds GRs, GR pushing with party. Also few rifts

1/31/19
Bounty Mats: 1268
DBs: 14191
Reusable parts: 31313
Arcane Dust: 38096
Veiled Crystals: 32317
Forgotten Souls: 9914
Primals total: 22 (3 useful ones for builds I'm not using)
Notes: Rifts, GR100s and some gem leveling GR80s. At this point running bounties and GRs will get me the remaining needed materials. The biggest gap is going to be getting to 20000 Forgotten Souls before crafting
 

Ghist

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Weekend update:

2/4/19
Bounty Mats: 2020
DBs: 19593
Reusable parts: 49669
Arcane Dust: 58762
Veiled Crystals: 47111
Forgotten Souls: 12493
Primals total: 27 (1 useful one and 4 useful ones for builds I'm not using)
Notes: Lots of bounties and some GR pushing. Looks like I will have to delay my crafting by one week as I'm still about 7500 Forgotten souls short of my target. At least I'm done with Bounties giving me more time to run Rifts and GRs.
 

Ghist

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So I decided to not wait for 20k Forgotten souls and started rerolling and crafting at 14k. End result was:
  • 4 Primals
    • Traveller's Pledge (perfect for Manald Heal build, but not for others as it only came with CHD)
    • Tasker and Theo (bad stats)
    • Tal Rasha's gloves (good for Meteor Shower build, not Star pact as came with only Crit as dps stat)
    • Magefists (ok stats, CRC + CHD)
  • Other notable things
    • Trifecta CRC, CHD, AD Compass Rose
    • 2939 DPS Deathwish with 24 AD and 324 (1 from max) secondary
    • Trifecta normal Traveller's Pledge
  • Other notes:
    • I did quite a massive number of ring upgrades and I'm bit surprised I did not get any ring primals
    • I decided to stop rerolling for Deathwish as difference between Primal and my version was under 10% which is not even single GR level. Having secondary 1% from Max is so hard to get that only way to get better for me would be getting that primal with right stats.
    • I still have 600 of each bounty material. I will probably use those over time when I get more forgotten souls
    • My Tal Rasha Star Pact group build is now ready. There is still room for upgrades, but those are much more unlikely. Rings and Amulets are normal, but getting those with right stats as Ancient is really hard.
 
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